Libya Conflict Analysis: Part 1 of 2 - Historical Factors & probable outcomes - October 3, 2011
I have spent 700 hours researching and publishing information regarding the Libya Conflict. Transcript: Transcript:
I cite as my primary historical reference "A History of Modern Libya: a series of interview by the real news with the chair of the Political Science dept at the University of New England. Professor Ali Ahmida, who is a friend of Jalil the most respected of the leaders in the Transitional National Council. This professor is not a supporter of Gadaffi's Jamahiriya, but he does describe both sides. if you watch this 45 minute program in 3 parts you may learn a great deal
Additionally the writing of David Kirpatrick of the NY Times, Andrew Gilliam of the UK Telegraph and David McKenzie of CNN as well as Digital Journals Katerina Nicolas http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8754375/...
CNN 17 JUNE 2011 Tripoli Libya - Uprising Anger - Large Gaddafi Rally
Human Rights Watch reports Libya rebels torturing detainees
In order to determine what the possible outcomes are we must first look at History
No Arab Country has had organic parliamentary democracy. With 1 exception: Iran had an election in the 1950's but the Socialist Mozadegh was elected, and the US and Britain organized a coup -- installing Shah Reza Pahlavi, who was brought down in an uprising in 1979 as we all remember. The reformists and students and communists were quickly disappointed when Ayatollah Khomeini destroyed the democratic movement, installing a ruling council who had to approve any candidate before they could stand for election. The Students who were not religious zealots along with the reformists and communists were persecuted and tortured.In 1913 -- Italy invaded Libya under Fascist Italy of Benito Mussolini 1/3 of all Libyans died. They were put in concentration camps near Sirte and died in droves due to lack of clean water and food. Ironically this is what is happening today in Sirte. Except the city of Sirte is being attacked overhead by NATO dropping fragmentation bombs in a much more indiscriminate bombing than has been elsewhere credibly reported. People in Sirte, a city of between 75,000 and 125,000 could not even go the hospital due to the shelling by the TNC "rebels" and NATO bombardment. Children have been shredded and blown to bits. However after much international condemnation, the ICRC has been allowed into Sirte, the TNC thankfully stopped their blockade of humanitarian assistance for 2 days. Nato is claiming they will get out of Libya within a week or two, and leave the TNC to finish the job.
In reference to the Italian occupation of Libya, the most legendary of the early Libyans to conduct a guerilla hit and run campaign against the Italians was Omar Mukhtar who was hung by the Italians. To be fair King Idris was also a hero of the resistance.
In 1969 a group of 12 Libyan young officers staged a coup against King Idris, who was considered a corrupt monarchist puppet (who suspended Parliament in 1959) that favored the East, Benghazi and Cyrenaica -- to the detriment of Tripolitania in the West a much more modern and populous region. This coup was very popular.
The young officers kicked the Western Powers out of Libya, freeing themselves of the yoke of colonialist domination, nationalizing their oil industry and embarking on a energetic campaign to build all of Libya's infrastructure, although the East was often the last in line, though the whole country was built up. Education increased from a small fraction of the population to the majority and Gaddafi himself said his family would live in a tent until all Libyans had a home. Finally in the early 80s this was achieved and his parents were given a house. In 1975 the young officers council of 12 split evenly, with Gadaffi's side prevailing. Gadaffi developed a very unusual political philosophy called Direct Democracy or the 3rd International theory, wherein local councils were supposed to be able to have total control of their political affairs. He supported all liberation movements around the world, Nelson Mandela, the PLO, the IRA, freedom fighters and also armed revolutionaries including what we call terrorist groups but also some groups legititmately fighting corrupt and oppressive governments. This earned Libya a lot of enemies, as few of these groups actually did overthrow the governments they opposed. He invested heavily in Africa, and followed the Islamic tradition of providing zero interest loans, and beyond Islamic requirements often had them undated. In 1985 Reagan bombed Benghazi and Tripoli, Gadaffi allegedly retaliated by having a Pan Am Jet blown up, and severe sanctions followed, Libya was isolated.
Country: United States