Floods USA: Missouri River Update, Bismarck, ND, New Corps Numbers - June 27, 2011

Floods USA: Missouri River Update, Bismarck, ND, New Corps Numbers - June 27, 2011 Good News for North Dakota Missouri River Flood Fighters Corps Could Ease Releases Starting July 9th June 27, 2011 By Mark Armstrong Bismarck, ND....This morning as I took video and pictures from the replica Yellowstone at Steamboat Park just south of the BNSF Railroad bridge, it was again odd to see no boat traffic on a sunny June morning. A small flock of Canadian geese had the river to itself with the morning crest of 19.17 feet. 150,400 cubic feet of water per second (cfs) upstream was still being discharged from Garrison Dam, creating a mega-flood that enters its fifth week officially today. Sometime later today the Missouri river will surpass 19.20 feet at the gauge in Bismarck, moving this flood into 22nd all-time, when the flood of 1893 occurred here. With 800 homes and 4,000 people evacuated on both sides of the river and various flood battles continuing throughout both counties, the news over the week-end was welcomed that the Corps could start to ease releases by 5,000 cfs beginning July 9th to 120,000 cfs by July 18th. Still causing a flood, just less of a flood by about roughly twenty percent by sheer volume of water. Here is the three-week forecast link that provides all the information http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/twout.html Weather and Snowpack in Montana-Wyoming are the Big Unknowns Dependent on the "Good News" from the Corps is the weather. They base theirs on a model. We know they tend to stick with their models, until the model changes. Like all models they are subject to change. Depends how far out you want to probe and how many variables you want to throw into the mix. I asked Meteorologist Mike Maguire if the model swings a few degrees warmer, or wetter or the snowpack comes out faster, if it is possible to see a ramp back up on the flows from Garrison Dam, given they are at-capapcity now? He replied in an email to me, Yes! This is completely dependent on the Yellowstone River forecast being close to right. They surely know the weather/heat coming. They surely are better guessers(than me) at how much snow is up there(or consult with the best guessers). If there is more snow than the best guessers thought and temps got 10 degrees warmer than what the models were programmed with, then we could have a spike a bit higher but it seems hard to believe they could be off by an amount that would cause the river at Corwin Springs to jump to the 11 feet area. The latest extended NWS products. These are automated on weekends and usually not as good as the M-F versions that meteorologists create using the same guidance but applying correction factors. If it were me, I would be making it warmer and drier in MT/ND than these maps. Maybe tomorrow we'll see that from the human beings. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php It seems like no-one from the 11,000 evacuated in Minot from 4,000 homes to the 800 homes and 4,000 evacuated here have caught a break yet from models or forecasts. Let's hope this new model and release schedule holds up and we don't see some of the other possible scenarios play out on the Missouri river that played out on the Souris Basin. Our hearts and prayers continue for those fighting the greatest disaster to ever strike North Dakota. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Name: bismarckman Website: http://www.youtube.com/user/bismarckman Country: United States --------------------------------------------------------------------